Cause and Effect

I am fascinated with cause and effect. This concept is contained in most powerful statistical techniques: explanatory and response variables used in regression; input and outputs contained in designed experiments.

The following story was emailed to me today. I'm not sure if it is true but it falls under the category of effects and their unlikely causes. I guess the point is that you must look for the causes through diligent research and data collection. Not jumping to conclusions based on hunches or public opinion.

Enjoy:

A complaint was received by the Pontiac Division of General Motors:

This is the second time I have written to you, and I don't blame you for not answering me, because I sounded crazy, but it is a fact that we have a tradition in our family of ice cream for dessert after dinner each night. But the kind of ice cream varies so, every night, after we've eaten, the whole family votes on which kind of ice cream we should have and I drive down to the store to get it.

It's also a fact that I recently purchased a new Pontiac and since then my trips to the store have created a problem. You see every time I buy a vanilla ice cream, when I start back from the store my car won't start. If I get any other kind of ice cream, the car starts just fine. I want you to know I'm serious about this question, no matter how silly it sounds: What is there about a Pontiac that makes it not start when I get vanilla ice cream, and easy to start whenever I get any other kind?

The Pontiac President was understandably skeptical about the letter, but sent an engineer to check it out anyway. The latter was surprised to be greeted by a successful, obviously well educated man in a fine neighborhood. He had arranged to meet the man just after dinnertime, so the two hopped into the car and drove to the ice cream store. It was vanilla ice cream that night and, sure enough, after they came back to the car, it wouldn't start. The engineer returned for three more nights.

The first night, they got chocolate. The car started. The second night, he got strawberry. The car started. The third night he ordered vanilla. The car failed to start. Now the engineer, being a logical man, refused to believe that this man's car was allergic to vanilla ice cream. He arranged, therefore, to continue his visits for as long as it took to solve the problem. And toward this end he began to take notes: he jotted down all sorts of data: time of day, type of gas uses, time to drive back and forth etc. In a short time, he had a clue: the man took less time to buy vanilla than any other flavor. Why? The answer was in the layout of the store. Vanilla, being the most popular flavor, was in a separate case at the front of the store for quick pickup. All the other flavors were kept in the back of the store at a different counter where it took considerably longer to check out the flavor. Now, the question for the engineer was why the car wouldn't start when it took less time. Once time became problem - not the vanilla ices cream, the engineer quickly came up with the answer: "Vapor lock". It was happening every night; but the extra time taken to get the other flavors allowed the engine to cool down sufficiently to start. When the man got vanilla, the engine was still to hot for the vapor lock to dissipate.

Remember: Even crazy looking problems are sometimes real and all problems seem to be simple only when we find the solution with a cool thinking.