We Should Be Thankful for the Vote We Have

This was an article I wrote in October 2007. I think it is more appropriate for today.

In this election season, I found myself thinking of clichés. You know, the corny sayings uttered by sports figures and, when we were young, our parents. Every once in a while, the oddities come true-return to 2000 when Al Gore and George Bush competed for the Presidency. Hopefully you will agree we learned that truly, “every vote does count”. Prior to that election, how many times was the phrase stated in the media, in classrooms, and in households? The country held its breath as every vote was re-counted in Florida to help determine the winner. Such action was needed because the difference in votes between the candidates was seemingly single digits. Yes, I learned that every vote does count.

Do most Americans hold this right to vote in high regard? Do we all perform our civic duty to pick the leaders of our communities, states, and nation? We could enjoy coffee together and debate for a length of time but I will try to answer the questions with objective evidence.

For starters, how does the United States compare with other nations in terms of voting turnout? The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance compiles national election data for countries around the globe. One set of data compares voter turnout for countries having at least two national elections in the time period 1945-1988. The statistic is the number of voters as a percent of the total voting age population. Figure One shows the ten countries with the highest turnout rates. Note the United States does not appear in this list. Of the 172 countries listed, the United States ranked 139 in order from highest (1) to lowest turnout rate (172).

Specific to America, how has the population participated in presidential elections over time? The American Presidency Project is a wonderful resource for all things presidential. The website lists the percent voter turnout (number of voters divided by the total voting age population) for presidential elections 1824-2004. Figure Two shows the trend of percent voter turnout over this time period. When I look at the data, I see four distinct time periods where turnout remained fairly constant: 1824-1836, 1840-1908, 1912-1968, 1972-2004. The average percent voter turnout in the last period is 52.8%. On average, since 1972, just over one half of our country’s voting age population voted in presidential elections.

Literature and research abound with explanations for turnout rates. The factors range from weather to literacy levels. I have seen no evidence that points to a single factor or multiple factors that significantly affect turnout. If we knew such knobs to turn, the problem may have been fixed by now.

2000 and 2004 taught me that our votes do count. What would have happened in 2000 had the other 50% of voting population participated in the process? Table One shows each election since 1972, the total voting age population at the time, the percent voter turnout, the number of non-voters, and the margin of victory in the election. Hopefully, this table is a big “What If?”

So, why should we vote? Simple put, it is our civic duty and a God given right to do so. These reasons should be enough.

Do we need incentives to vote? If the outcome was known in advance and deemed unfavorable (to you) would this motivate you to stand in line to cast your ballot? I bet it would. Well, we have such a predictor in the form of political, opinion polls. The National Council on Public Polls houses historical, political polls dating back to 1948. Their summary shows the poll results of multiple polling firms just before that year’s presidential election. By averaging the results of the different polls, you can get an estimated prediction of the election’s result. Figure Three plots the average predicted margin of victory (by polls) versus the actual margin of victory in the election. The near straight line suggests the two are somewhat connected or the polls did a good job of predicting the outcome.

Listen to the candidates. Learn their positions. Form your opinion. And vote.