No! Don't switch to another website after reading the title. I have a great point to make in this post. Yes, we all need a bit of statistical knowledge in our lives. Read on and I'll explain why.
In the March 4th edition of the Post and Courier, there was an editorial by David Brooks of the the New York Times titled "Path to a great education regardless of college you attend". The point of the article was you don't have to attend Harvard (or college at all) to obtain a great education. His recipe for a life-long education includes eight essential ingredients. For example, number four is "learn a foreign language". Do this and you will be more well-rounded and prepared for the flatness of the world.
Number seven is what caught my eye. I read it, did a double take, and read it again. I asked my wife to confirm what I thought I was seeing in black ink. "Take statistics" was offered by Brooks as the next to last piece of advice. Specifically, he said, "Sorry, but you'll find later in life that it's handy to know what a standard deviation is."
Well, where do I start? First, I agree with him. It is fascinating that a popular journalist thought to write this in such a complex article. But what does he mean?
I hope to get multiple comments on this one. I know there are others that believe this and hold to this truth as they conduct their lives and careers.
Here is my take: Simply put, standard deviation is a measure of variation. Life (including business) is, among many things, about change. Change is constant. It surrounds us every day at home, work, church, etc. Your son brings home a bad grade that radically differs from his historical performance. Did he not prepare for the test or did the teacher do a poor job of preparing the students? A new Sunday school superintendent starts at your church and quickly begins to change the culture. Some are happy and others are irate. At work, you perform an end of line inspection of product and find a defective. Your supervisor tells you to stop the next shipment and put everything on hold. You know that this is just an audit and the historical data suggested a high probability of failure.
Understanding standard deviation is the beginning of a journey to understand variation. How processes and systems change over time. The difference between special cause and common cause variation. It is a life-long pursuit that fuels your life and it gives you a unique perspective of the world.
It makes you a better parent, sibling, spouse, and citizen. There, that's it.
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3 comments:
Wow, I never would have thought that someone would invite the subject of statistics. I am one of the few that have enjoyed studying statistics and look forward to learning a great deal more. Some people do not forsee the huge amount of globalization that is taking place. And yes statistics affects each and everyone of us. However, some are trapped in a "what was will always remain" attitude. I would like to use my stastical background to further my career, but it seems that many do not wish to pursue this arena. I can honestly say that I did some research and saw a trend that I needed to jump onto this "statistical" bandwagon and I am glad that I did.
A piece of advice: Don't tie a pursuit of statistical thinking with your career. Do it because it fits what you are wired to do. If you are a true statistical thinker, you owe it to yourself to grow the skill. If you do, your career will will be one of the side effects of this worthwhile pursuit.
That same column caught my eye as well. I am heavily trained in statistics and have gone through many years experiencing the realities that (1) how little many people know about statistics (2) how much many people dislike statistics and (3) how many statistics courses make the first two items in this list worse! I have had the repeated experience that many people, even when they have MD’s and PhD’s, think that statistics is something that is only understood by some sort of strange intelligence that is not present in the average soul on the street. When David Brookes encourages folks to take statistics, I can almost hear the groans!
I think I talked a little about this to you before, Stephen, so I hope I’m not being to redundant to bring it up again here.
My wish, hope and dream is that more people begin to recognize statistics as a very human activity. It is just another way to simplify things so the average idiot like me can get his mind around them (and a way that can work really well). If we look at variance or standard deviation, they are just ways to simplify the experience we all have that THINGS JUMP AROUND. Nothing holds still. Nothing measures the same twice. Do we give up? A lot of people do. But by calculating a variance, we can put a one simple number on a piece of paper to give us an idea of how much things jump around. A variance of five shows that a measurement jumps around less than a variance of ten. That’s all. As nice as the probability theory behind all of that is (and as much as a fool like me might enjoy that theory), it’s not really the actual foundation or motivation for a variance.
So I agree completely with the esteemed Mr. Brookes and Mr. Deas and I sure do wish that spreading the use of statistics didn’t hit such a big bump as soon as some one brings up the subject.
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